Sandbox Scenarios
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Sandbox sample Selected supply chains only. All figures and scenarios describe this sample, not the whole market.Example investigations

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Scenario result

United States: a 100% disruption directly affects 2 facilities, with 0 documented downstream facilities exposed.

Dataset sandbox-2026.09.17-manufacturers. Values with missing route or ownership shares remain unquantified. Results cover documented facilities, not the whole market. Annual output records may cover different fiscal periods; they are not current run rates.
Reproducible scenario / sandbox-2026.09.17-manufacturers

Who is affected, and why?

Direct targets and downstream facilities linked by documented routes.

FacilityImpactEvidence pathWhat remains uncertain
Mountain PassMP MaterialsDirect disruptionSelected directlyQuantity can be calculated; unrecorded customers are outside this model
Independence FacilityMP MaterialsDirect disruption
Mountain Passsupplies / Share undisclosed
Current operating output is undisclosed

Commercial commitments to review

Potential obligations and procurement exposure, separate from quantified physical loss.

3

Company-level commitments cannot identify a receiving factory or the share of its inputs. These records guide investigation; they do not increase the calculated production loss.

Independence Facility → General MotorsSupply commitment to review: NdPr alloy, NdFeB magnets (Company allocation unresolved)
Contracted

Independence Facility → General Motors

NdPr alloy, NdFeB magnets

Long-term supply for GM electric vehicles. Factory-level delivery allocation is undisclosed.

Company-level scopeQuantity undisclosedReviewed 15 Sept 2026
Terms and source evidence

Receiving factory and recipient input allocation are not disclosed. Current deliveries are not assumed from a signed agreement.

Supply scope and commercial terms. Announced: Date not stated.

General Motors supply agreementMP Materials / Published Date not stated / Retrieved 15 Sept 2026
Independence Facility → AppleSupply commitment to review: Recycled rare-earth magnets (Company allocation unresolved)
Contracted

Independence Facility → Apple

Recycled rare-earth magnets

Shipments targeted from 2027. The $500 million partnership value is not a material tonnage.

Company-level scopeQuantity undisclosedReviewed 15 Sept 2026
Terms and source evidence

Depends on recycling and magnet-facility expansion, production ramp and qualification. No Apple assembly site specified.

Supply scope and commercial terms. Announced: 15 Jul 2025.

Apple recycled-magnet supply agreementMP Materials / Published Date not stated / Retrieved 15 Sept 2026
Mountain Pass → Independence FacilitySupply commitment to review: NdPr oxide (Named facility scope)
Directly affected
2
Facilities and trade routes
Downstream exposure
0
0 quantified, 0 unquantified
Stages affected
1
With quantified operating loss
Operating alternatives
0
With documented spare capacity

Operating capacity impact

Known baseline compared with the scenario result.

Mine
Unquantified
Concentrate
Unquantified
Separated REE
Unquantified
NdPr oxide0% replacement coverage
-26%
Alloy
Unquantified
Magnet
Unquantified
Each stage is measured against its own baseline. Bars compare percentage impact, not quantities across different products. Missing operating output is unquantified.

Operating alternatives

Facilities with product fit, spare capacity, and a shared documented customer.

Operating
No qualifying operating alternative is documented.

Relevant project pipeline

Non operating projects in affected product stages.

Future
10X FacilityDevelopment7 kt magnets/yr plannedEneabba Rare Earths RefineryConstruction5.5 kt NdPr oxide/yr planned

How to read this result

Coverage limits and calculation rules.

Evidence based
The result uses disclosed operating capacity and documented relationships only.
  • Operating output uses reported annual production where available, otherwise capacity multiplied by disclosed utilisation. Undisclosed utilisation is not estimated.
  • Annual production records can cover different fiscal periods. This is a sensitivity analysis of documented output, not a current run-rate forecast.
  • No documented downstream exposure does not mean no customers or no real-world impact. Missing supply relationships remain outside the model.
  • Disclosed route shares are additive and capped at the destination facility's operating output.
  • Replacement capacity is allocated once within each stage and only where a shared customer is documented.
  • Replacement allocation is conservative, prioritising facilities with fewer documented alternatives. It is not an optimised routing plan.
  • Construction and development projects are not counted as current replacement capacity.
Read the full methodology