Sandbox Methodology
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Sandbox sample Selected supply chains only. All figures and scenarios describe this sample, not the whole market.Example investigations
Transparent by design

Analytical methodology

How Oreline turns structured capacity and relationships into reproducible analysis.

Chokepoint score

Rule based

The stage score combines six factors that describe concentration, capacity pressure, substitution and input dependency. Each factor remains visible alongside its weight.

Every score includes an input coverage measure based on utilisation, evidence quality, source freshness and disclosed route shares. A stage without enough operating data is shown as not calculated. At least three operating facilities with known, compatible output are required. This is a coverage safeguard, not a claim that the sample represents the global market.
Facility Concentration20% weight
Jurisdiction Concentration20% weight
Company Concentration16% weight
Utilisation Pressure14% weight
Substitution Constraint15% weight
Input Dependency15% weight

Scenario rules

  1. Apply the selected disruption to the current versioned baseline.
  2. For an outage, reduce selected operating output with known utilisation. Operating control and partial ownership are handled separately.
  3. For export restrictions, block documented cross-border routes; never remove domestic production capacity.
  4. Trace only explicit physical, offtake or dependency routes.
  5. Add disclosed losses from multiple suppliers and cap the combined dependency loss at 100% of each downstream facility.
  6. Keep undisclosed shares out of the quantified result and show the wider possible exposure separately.
  7. Allocate spare capacity from each alternative once within its production stage. Require compatible products and units, exclude disrupted suppliers, and prioritise facilities with fewer alternatives. This conservative allocation is not an optimised routing plan.
  8. Keep construction and development capacity separate.
An upstream and downstream facility are never treated as connected solely because their production stages are adjacent.

Public-data boundary

Official occurrence, project and facility registers remain a separate discovery layer. A public record is not promoted into the supply-chain capacity model until its status, capacity, ownership and source evidence meet the curated-model standard.

Source labels, qualifiers, unknown values and publisher record IDs are preserved. Raw releases are pinned by SHA-256 checksum.

Evidence taxonomy

Confirmed
Corroborated by multiple reliable primary records.
Company reported
Disclosed by the relevant company; not independently confirmed.
Government reported
Published by a competent public authority.
Analyst estimated
Transparent Oreline estimate from disclosed inputs.
Inferred
Probable relationship supported by partial disclosed evidence.
Not disclosed
Information is unavailable; the model preserves the gap.