Test the consequence

Change the disruption size. Results describe this sample only, not the whole market.

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Scenario result

Jacinth-Ambrosia: a 100% disruption directly affects 1 facility, with 1 documented downstream facility exposed.

Dataset sandbox-2026.09.17-manufacturers. Values with missing route or ownership shares remain unquantified. Results cover documented facilities, not the whole market. Annual output records may cover different fiscal periods; they are not current run rates.

Who is affected, and why?

Direct targets and downstream facilities linked by documented routes.

Facility	Impact	Evidence path	What remains uncertain
Narngulu mineral separationIluka Resources	Downstream exposure	Jacinth-Ambrosiasupplies / Share undisclosed	Current operating output is undisclosed
Jacinth-AmbrosiaIluka Resources	Direct disruption	Selected directly	Current operating output is undisclosed

Commercial commitments to review

Potential obligations and procurement exposure, separate from quantified physical loss.

Company-level commitments cannot identify a receiving factory or the share of its inputs. These records guide investigation; they do not increase the calculated production loss.

Cataby → Narngulu mineral separationProcurement commitment to review: Product scope in source (Named facility scope)

Supply reported

Cataby → Narngulu mineral separation

Product scope in source

Processing route explicitly described by the operator. Recipient input fraction is not disclosed.

Named facilitiesQuantity undisclosedReviewed 15 Sept 2026

Terms and source evidence

Recipient input fraction is not inferred from a contract quantity.

Trace the physical route

Documented physical route. Announced: Date not stated.

Western Australian operations and feed routesIluka Resources / Published Date not stated / Retrieved 15 Sept 2026

Jacinth-Ambrosia → Narngulu mineral separationSupply commitment to review: Product scope in source (Named facility scope)

Supply reported

Jacinth-Ambrosia → Narngulu mineral separation

Product scope in source

Processing route explicitly described by the operator. Recipient input fraction is not disclosed.

Named facilitiesQuantity undisclosedReviewed 15 Sept 2026

Terms and source evidence

Recipient input fraction is not inferred from a contract quantity.

Trace the physical route

Documented physical route. Announced: Date not stated.

Jacinth-Ambrosia operationsIluka Resources / Published Date not stated / Retrieved 15 Sept 2026

Directly affected

Facilities and trade routes

Downstream exposure

0 quantified, 1 unquantified

Stages affected

With quantified operating loss

Operating alternatives

With documented spare capacity

Operating capacity impact

Known baseline compared with the scenario result.

Mine

Unquantified

Concentrate

Unquantified

Separated REE

Unquantified

NdPr oxide

No known loss

Alloy

Unquantified

Magnet

Unquantified

Each stage is measured against its own baseline. Bars compare percentage impact, not quantities across different products. Missing operating output is unquantified.

Operating alternatives

Facilities with product fit, spare capacity, and a shared documented customer.

Operating

No qualifying operating alternative is documented.

Relevant project pipeline

Non operating projects in affected product stages.

Future

No additional relevant project is documented.

How to read this result

Coverage limits and calculation rules.

Evidence based

Some downstream exposure cannot be fully quantified because route shares or operating output are not disclosed.

Operating output uses reported annual production where available, otherwise capacity multiplied by disclosed utilisation. Undisclosed utilisation is not estimated.
Annual production records can cover different fiscal periods. This is a sensitivity analysis of documented output, not a current run-rate forecast.
No documented downstream exposure does not mean no customers or no real-world impact. Missing supply relationships remain outside the model.
Disclosed route shares are additive and capped at the destination facility's operating output.
Replacement capacity is allocated once within each stage and only where a shared customer is documented.
Replacement allocation is conservative, prioritising facilities with fewer documented alternatives. It is not an optimised routing plan.
Construction and development projects are not counted as current replacement capacity.

Read the full methodology