Separate announced capacity from expected output
The IEA's 2026 supply analysis distinguishes existing and announced projects and compares them with scenario-based requirements. For a project-level review, retain the same distinction between a stated development ambition and output that has already been observed.
Deduplicate phases and expansions before adding capacity. An updated project figure may replace an earlier target rather than add to it. Keep the product and processing stage consistent, and record whether a number is total site capacity or an incremental addition.
IEA: Rare-earth mine supply and requirements by scenario in 2035 (2026) ↗
Prefer explicit cases to unexplained probabilities
A weighted pipeline can look precise while relying on unsupported completion probabilities. If your team cannot defend those probabilities, use transparent cases such as evidenced operations, specified developments by a target year and a delayed case. Describe the inclusion rule and assumptions for each.
Shared dependencies also matter. Several projects can rely on one processor, financing environment or infrastructure development. Treating their outcomes as independent may understate correlated delay. Examine those links before interpreting a large pipeline as diversified future supply.
A hypothetical timing comparison
Suppose two projects each target 1,000 tonnes per year but both require one new separation plant. A headline total of 2,000 tonnes says nothing about supply before that plant is ready. Show the common dependency and the relevant start assumptions. If you also model probabilities, explain their basis and retain the joint-dependency case rather than only an expected-value total.
A pipeline table needs more than capacity
| Field | Reason |
|---|---|
| Product and phase | Prevents unlike units and duplicate expansions |
| Milestone and date | Makes timing assumptions visible |
| Shared dependency | Shows correlated execution exposure |
Your review checklist
- Deduplicate replacement targets.
- Separate incremental and total capacity.
- Use transparent scenario inclusion rules.
- Investigate common execution dependencies.
Investigate with Oreline
Oreline’s project, relationship and evidence views help your team test the industrial assumptions behind a pipeline. Use saved investigations to revisit which developments support your scenario as milestones and disclosures change.
Follow the evidence through the supply chain.
Explore Oreline’s guided investigations. No account required.
Explore the sandbox →Frequently asked questions
Should all proposed projects be excluded?
No. Include them in explicitly conditional views rather than mixing them with current output.
Is a probability-weighted total a delivery commitment?
No. Even a well-supported expected value does not establish which product will be available to a specific buyer.